Parents, students, high school officials and colleges anxiously read  forecast  after forecast of the number of high school graduates in upcoming years. Most recently, the Western Interstate Commission for High Education (WICHE) released its 7th edition of “Knocking at the College Door”.

The good news is that on a national level, the number of public high school graduates is projected to peak this year at just over 3 million before beginning a gradual decline through 2013-14 —when numbers are expected to begin climbing back to peak levels by 2017-18. However, it will be most meaningful for individual families and colleges to consider the numbers region by region because there is considerable variance between them.
Starting closest to home the number of high school graduates in the Western region peaks this year. Between now and 2014-15 the total number of graduates will decline only 2% and then begin rising. California high school graduate numbers will remain stable. However, Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Utah will experience explosive growth (increase between now and 2014-15 of 20%). What this means to future college applicants in California –many may find colleges and universities in popular neighboring states relatively more difficult to gain acceptance to.
Other popular destinations for California students are Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania. A bit of better news here is that those states are predicted to have slowing production of high school graduates (losses between 5-10% between now and 2014-15).

Not to be forgotten the Pacific Northwest. Both Oregon and Washington like California are predicted to to have stable production of high school graduates through 2014-15.

In summary, the Western region will have overall significant increase in numbers of high school graduates while East and Midwest will experience declines. Advice: Time to open those maps and look past the Mississippi.

PS: Oh yes, and current second through fifth graders may enjoy historic low graduation rates…! Yippee!